Uncover PRICE MANIPULATION in local counters... Avoid these time bombs!!!

I found a strange pattern in some counters whereby volume will increase steadily for weeks with price appreciation. All goes well until something go berserk and the Ponzi scheme collapse!! Check these three out and look closely at their volume!!! Did you see some pattern? :)

Happy profiting!!!
Keep away from these crappy stocks... I wonder do the authorities question these abnormalities? Hmm...

SP CORPORATION LIMITED

HEATEC JIETONG HOLDINGS LTD

KTL GLOBAL LIMITED

Mirror mirror on the wall, who is the strongest of them all??

Of all the FTSE Index, only 3 are performing stronger compared to STI Index. They are (in descending order)

1. FST Telecom
2. FST Healthcare
3. FST Real Estate Investment Trust

If you looks at the nature of these sectors, they belongs to the defensive categories. That means money will park in these area in times of uncertainty. It tells us a bit about our current economic situation!

Zooming into Telecom Sector, we have the following counters:

1. KepT&T
2. Singtel
3. M1
4. Starhub
5. Pac Cent

Counter (1) and (5) have terrible price patterns. That leaves us with only the 3 big local telecom. Singtel has been in a rectangular range formation. Only M1 and Starhub shows a clear upwards price trend. While M1 has broken down from the trendline, Starhub has a violent rebounce last week. So the winner is:

Happy profiting!!!

STI Weekly...Indecision

It is official!!! There will be No QE3 from now till the next FOMC meeting in September. The market will have to fend for itself for the next 3 weeks... Last Friday rally in US equities shows some return of risk appetite as interest now shift to the 2 days Sept FOMC. Wall Street is now betting that the extra one day suggests Fed may employs special tools to soothe the markets if situation worsen. The message is clear: You are on your own now!!!

Happy profiting!!

Burn another HOLE in our pocket... Quantitative Easing Round 3!!!

All eyes are now on Jackson Hole event on coming Friday 10pm where Fed Bernanke will announce monetary policy for US. This is significant as it was this event last year that Fed announce QE2!!! Will Fed announce QE3 to save the equity markets? Or will this be a black swarm event that sparks something similar to the collapse of Lehman Brothers? Let's put forward the scenarios:

QE3 announced on Friday (darn! they deserve B rating from S&P, Moody, and Fitch)

1. USD dollar will get trashed
2. US treasury and bond yield will go up
3. Risk sentiment for equity market and risk assets will pick up
4. Precious Metal will break new high
5. Singapore Dollar will appreciate against USD (maybe long term we might hit parity; good news for SG shoppers)

QE3 NOT announced on Friday (unexpected scenario)

1. USD dollar might appreciate as investors seek refuge in US treasuries and bonds
2. Equity market and risk assets get trashed as disappointment mounts
3. Precious Metal (Unknown reaction, it might react lower and then pick up as fiat currencies are losing flavor)
4. USDSGD may retraces higher

Will Fed burn another hole in our pocket by printing more money, inflating everything around the world? Can they continue abusing their World Reserve Currency status? Will they continue to punish the savers and reward the Wall Street pundits? 

We will see coming Friday... 

Happy profiting!!!

Unleash Wall Street Secret Recipe!!!

The Holy Grail for investment... Manage your expectations!!!

STI Death Cross... 200/50 = 4 (Sound inauspicious)

Probably the most significant event last week was the 50-Day EMA crossing below the 200-Day EMA for the first time since the Lehman Brother credit event. This cross is significant as it is a bear market signal.

Circled red are instances where the 50MA dips below the 200MA. As past data shown, such occurrences are usually accompanied by a slide of approximately >20%. Be prudent with your investment!

Happy profiting!

STI weekly update... Time to Buy or Fly??

After last week roller-coaster ride, let's do a re-cap on the daily and weekly STI index!

Weekly:
Spread is definitely larger than last week. Price now close somewhere in the middle, suggesting some degree of bargain hunting by investors. If we take last Nov high and recent July high as double top pattern (not perfect though), the downside projection is around the range 2660 - 2700. There is also a downwards channel forming on weekly, and the circled region is the confluence of 3 big technical important things: 38.2 fib retracement, resistance from previous swing lows, edge of channel, and the 2900 psychological level.

Daily:
On the daily, there is a hammer formed on Thursday followed by a rally on Friday. Short term, I believe we will start next week with a rally towards that dreadful confluence resistance zone 2900 - 2915 before further downside to the projected target.

That sounds like all we can get from technical analysis. But this market is now so fragile and is essentially sentiment driven. Sentiment can switch from headlines to headlines. At this volatile time, remember capital is king... Protect your capital to fight another day!

Happy profiting!!!
* SGX REACH will come online tomorrow, so expect volatility to reign in local market with HFT!!! It will never be the same again once computers take over... Argh!!!

Risk off week ahead!

Next week will be a risk off week... Some important things to note:

1. Outcome of EURO-zone Sunday meeting on debt purchase
2. FOMC speech on early Wednesday morning

Note that SGX is closed on Tuesday for National Day, just before the critical FOMC speech... 

On the currency front, USDCHF just drop a hint for next week risk appetite on my Oanda platform! US downgrade may not be a non-event as the news suggest.

More volatility ahead...

A picture speaks all... Be extra careful next week as US just lose its AAA rating!!!