SP AUSNET... Ex-Dividend how to play?

A lot of times, a dormant counter will sleep for some time and suddenly wait up when ex-dividend date is 1 to 2 months away. Take for instance, SP AUSNET which goes ex-dividend today. Have you see how price gap down today? Technically this is very damaging as the example will highlight below.

I observe many stocks will break down on ex-dividend day. Rather than holding stock and wait probably a month to receive the dividend and risking the possibility of your counter going south, why not sell just a day before ex-dividend? Afterall, you will still get the dividend which comes in the form of price appreciation. Further the money is almost immediate, within a week :)

Happy profiting!!!
* Accumulation must start way early to play dividend expectation from market crowd.

Fengshui and stock market!!! That's so COOL!!!

It seems like the sell in May does work well, isn't it? :)

Have you ever wondered if it is possible to use divination power to forecast market movement? Well, a team of experts have pulled together to publish an article every year for HSI (Hangseng Index). Based on last year 2010 forecast, I would say their fengshui index is right almost 80% of the time. 

And how about 2011?

For full report, please go to the official website: https://www.clsa.com/index.php

COSCO Corporation flu behavior... 'Ah chew'!!!

A picture says a thousand words!!! 

Happy profiting!! 

Market has been erratic... protect profits, nibble and go :)

Singapore Press Holding...

This counter is showing price weakness lately. If you look at the weekly chart, price is now on the critical trendline extending from last year 2010. Watch for a break as this might signal a trend change from bullishness to bearishness.If investors aren't interested with a counter that pays steady dividend, where are they putting their money? In higher yield asset class or sideline?

The market is quite erratic recently...

STI consolidation...

Let's review the index.... Since the May sell down, price is consolidating in a tight range. From the chart, there are 2 weekly inside bar after the huge bearish bar. Further, the MA flatten and price whipsaw around it. What is the chance of a upside breakup v.s. downside breakdown?

Sad to say, chart and technical analysis can't forecast the future. It says a lot about what has already happened but never reveal anything about the future. As a tool, it gives an indication of where price MIGHT go and we react by taking calculated risk on possible direction. Sometimes it gives hidden clues by forming patterns which analysts had painstakingly classify into continuation and reversal.

What's up now? I prefer to wait for market to give a clear signal where it wants to go from here. It is in consolidation now, and chances are 50/50. No one can pick tops and bottoms; that's only possible in hindsight. My bias is towards further downside though that is subjected to price action and new information inflow.

Happy profiting!!!

Keppel Corporation.. hot Hot HOt HOT HoOt Hou HuAt

Keppel Cop is a hot favorite by many analysts who see the potential in the oil and gas industry! Often I will receive reports with promising target price. The question on the mind of investor will be: Is it a BUY or should I wait and see? Let's take a look at the chart and see how it is doing technically.

Commodities are on the rise, but recent margin hike for Silver, Gold, and Oil have taken some speculators out from their position. This almost crash the Silver market, seeing price drop from ~49/ounce to last ~35/ounce. That is almost a ~28% drop!!! A nightmare I would say for latecomers to this asset class. This is where a stop loss will help investors get out from damaging position and keep losses small. Most importantly, sleep peacefully at night :) As always, our goal in trading is: Let profit runs, let loss stops ASAP. Now, how will this impact Keppel which is closely linked to the Oil industry?

To Keppel's chart, the long term trend is clearly UP as witnessed by the rising moving average. However, recent price has formed a reversal pattern, commonly known as the head and shoulder. Watch the neckline carefully (~11.25) as any break from this level will probably trigger further selling. For those who want to long, this may be an opportunity to pick up some better deals on price retracement to ~11.10. And for those who are already owners, do have some stop loss in place just in case it turns southwards. Based on the pattern, downside projection is ~10.30. Only time can tell, so just sit back and react...

Happy profiting!!!

Mr. Postman... Singapore POSTit

Today let's do a study on Mr. Postman...

First of all, Singapore Post is a yield stock, meaning that investors are concerned about price stability and dividend it gives. Generally these stocks fair well when the overall market sentiment is bearish and smart money get out of risky assets. As always, before clicking the BUY button, it is wise to take a look at the financial to understand a bit about the business and its growth prospect. Usually I will go here (http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks), type in the name of the company, and it will pull out all the numbers. Below are some interesting figures on Singpost.

Dividends

	Company	Industry	Sector	S&P 500
Dividend Yield	5.43	1.92	1.52	1.81
Dividend Yield - 5 Year Avg.	5.96	1.24	1.35	2.47
Dividend 5 Year Growth Rate	-16.61	4.10	9.37	-3.82
Payout Ratio(TTM)	74.82	12.04	20.94	32.28

This doesn't look attractive since dividend growth rate for 5 years is negative. It means that the company may not be able to maintain its payout. And the yield does look a bit low compared to REITS. 

Financial Strength

	Company	Industry	Sector	S&P 500
Quick Ratio (MRQ)	2.05	0.93	1.10	0.69
Current Ratio (MRQ)	2.05	1.32	1.39	1.02
LT Debt to Equity (MRQ)	154.23	37.78	44.44	151.16
Total Debt to Equity (MRQ)	154.23	48.57	61.87	198.11
Interest Coverage (TTM)	--	1.02	0.07	17.31

Long term debt is a bit high now compared to the industry for this recent quarter. One may want to check why Singpost is borrowing so much long term debt. Is it a move to expand its business beyond mail service? Long term debt impacts cashflow and also the amount of dividend the company can gives. So much for the financial figures though there are much more to consider for investor. Generally, the preferred company should have low debt, high ROE, healthy operating cashflow, healthy P/E, good sale growth, and margin. Now let's zoom to the weekly chart of Mr. Postman.

First and foremost, price is now under the long term moving average (blue line). The white line is the trendline from Oct 2008 low, and price is beneath it. There is a a strong support between range 1.13 to 1.15. To long this stock, there must be evidence of strong buying volume (See attached chart note below). At present, the probability of a downside move seems much higher. A clearer signal is needed for long entry.

Always check out my earlier post:
http://clickandtrade.blogspot.com/2011/04/singapore-post-battle-of-email-and.html

Happy profiting!!!

Neptune Orient Lines Limited... NOL

There is very strange price action for the last 2 trading days. The counter has gathered amazing strength compared to the overall market. Is this a good time to accumulate for a dead cat re-bounce or sell into strength?

Looking at the chart, it is obvious that that strength is building up. But other factors makes this a risky counter to accumulate. Reasons as below: (1) the counter is strongly below the 50MA and need huge buy power to push up, (2) today closing price 1.93 hits right into resistance that extended back to Sept 2009, (3) the rest of the maritime counter like Cosco, Yangzijiang, FSL, Courage Marine, Mermaid etc are relative flat (related stock are not buying into this story), (4) todayonline say NOL price recovery is due to falling crude oil price (oil is correcting due to fear that margin for commodities will be rise further) which is most likely temporary.

If you are already long, nibble and go...
The conservative way is to sell on strength.

Happy profiting!!!

Osama bin laden is the headline!!!

His death might cause volatility in the local equity market as players position themselves to capitalize on the news release after a long weekend. Current sentiments seems to promote greater risk taking with USD Index crashing below 73.00...

The USD dollar is collapsing...

Labor Day means May is here!!!

Sell in May and go away!

This may not be statistically true but do watch for any volatility amid recent unstable macroeconomic situation happening around the way and results of Singapore GE2011 released on 7th May. For more information, visit the wiki link here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halloween_indicator

Image from http://etfdailynews.com

Oceanus Group Limited news... Believe or not?

Hello to everyone who has been reading this blog... Happy Labor Day to you!

On the 28th April (Thursday), there was some rumors that private equity firm KKR is in discussion with local abalone farmer Oceanus Group for possible capital injection or acquisition worth $500 million. Both KKR and Oceanus declined to comment. So how do retail investor determine if this rumor is worth believing in without access to insider information*? Can such rumors be trust?

Well, we have the technical chart to assist us to evaluate the probability if a rumor is valid. Volume tells a lot about the activity of a counter. Generally, volume is high when interest in the stock is high. Although insider trading is quite rare in Singapore, I still think that some big players may have access to "news" and capitalize on them quietly. If this is really the case, there should be accumulation on the chart.

On the Oceanus chart, there is no accumulation. In fact, the stock has been in a strong downtrend since last May 2010. Price is below its long term moving average and it seriously lacks strength. Momentum is also decreasing rapidly, tipping the probability towards a continued downtrend. In the event the rumor is true, price may hit strong resistance 0.30 which is a 25% increase over the last trade price 0.24.

Lets take another counter Thomson Medical which has been de-listed after acquisition by Peter Lim. Over here, there is noticeable volume increase before price spike strongly after news is released by the press. Do you still believe that the big boys have no prior access to information? :)

Happy profiting!!!

* Inside trading is illegal...